Playing The Spread 2K7, Week 1

It's after Labor Day and the bore that is the preseason has concluded. Starting tonight, the games count. We'll kick off the action with a ceremony commemorating something that I'm still in denial actually occurred. Then, the Colts will play the Saints. We'll have games in three time slots on Sunday and on Monday, we'll have a doubleheader. Indeed, kickoff weekend is a veritable orgy of football.

Because I feel the need to memorialize them in print, I now present my predictions for the 2007 NFL division winners and Super Bowl champion.

AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE
East: New England Patriots
North: Pittsburgh Steelers
South: Indianapolis Colts
West: San Diego Chargers
Wild Cards: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals

NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE
East: New York Giants
North: Chicago Bears
South: New Orleans Saints
West: Seattle Seahawks
Wild Cards: Carolina Panthers, Philadelphia Eagles

SUPERBOWL XLII: New England Patriots beat Chicago Bears (but does it really matter who the NFC puts up?)

We'll check back in January to see how well those predictions hold up. In the meanwhile, here come my Week One picks. For those of you not familiar with what we do here, I will briefly explain. Each Thursday, I pick a winner against the point spread (the final spread posted on Yahoo! Sports) for all of that weekend's NFL games and offer an insightful or humorous explanation of my pick. We keep track of my wins and losses and pray that I finish above .500 for the season. I also select my best bet each week (i.e. the game for which I am most confident about my selection) and name a team that I expect to win straight up for the Eliminator. (Once I pick a team for the Eliminator, I cannot choose them again the rest of the season.)

Since I did so pitifully last year on my best bets, I'm introducing a new feature called "The Monkey," which is basically a randomized selection of who will win one game (against the spread). If I had a household pet, I'd let the animal do the picking, but since I don't I will leave it to a virtual monkey in the form of an Excel spreadsheet with a random number generator. We'll see if my insights can outdo a computer with no mind of its own.

Keep in mind that the following picks are for entertainment purposes only and should not be used as the basis for any actual cash wagers.

Last year: 133-127-6
Last year best bets: 9-10
Last year eliminator: 14-3

Colts (-6) over Saints
The worst part about Peyton Manning winning the Super Bowl is that it eliminates half of my repertoire. WIN

Patriots (-6.5) over Jets
The Patriots are coming off the greatest offseason in recorded history. All we have to now sit back and watch the 16-week coronation. (Then again, that's what people say about the Yankees just about every year and we all know how well they've done this decade.) WIN

Broncos (-3) over Bills
Two years later, I just still can't get excited about J.P. Losman. Then again, I couldn't get excited about Drew Bledsoe and I certainly couldn't get excited about Rob Johnson. Looks like another year, another 7-9 record. LOSS

Redskins (-3) over Dolphins
After weeks of insisting he wasn't interested in taking the job at Alabama, Nick Saban took the job at Alabama, hanging the Dolphins out to dry. While the Crimson Tide faithful were celebrating his arrival, fans of the Dolphins' AFC East rivals were mourning his departure. TIE

Steelers (-4.5) over Browns
Pittsburgh has assured itself of a 2-14 season, at minimum, simply by virtue of playing in the same division as the Browns. WIN

Titans (+6.5) over Jaguars
Vince Young has been mentioned as the heir apparent to Michael Vick's scrambling quarterback legacy, but I believe there are two main differences: (1) Young has the size and pocket presence to avoid being put at risk of career-ending injury every time he decides to run; and (2) Young's idea of misconduct is sneaking out of the hotel to sleep in his own bed, which pales in comparison with electrocuting dogs. WIN

Chiefs (+3) over Texans
Analogy time! Houston Texans:NFL::______
(a) Tampa Bay Devils Rays:MLB
(b) Sam Brownback:Republican presidential primaries
(c) Jones Soda:Cola Wars
(d) CBS Evening News with Katie Couric:Nielsen ratings
(e) All of the above LOSS

Packers (+3) over Eagles
Brett Favre is about to begin his third final season. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but something tells me the old man will surprise people this year. WIN

Rams (-1) over Panthers
The Rams lost to the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXVI. The Panthers lost to the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXVIII. Both teams have a decent shot at being the NFC's sacrifical lamb that the Patriots will destroy in Super Bowl XLII. LOSS

Vikings (-1) over Falcons
With the Michael Vick dogfighting scandal looming large, the Minnesota Vikings can breathe a collective sigh of relief now that they're no longer the butt of any joke involving the NFL. (Then again, so can the Bengals.) WIN

Seahawks (-6) over Bucs
Memo to Seahawks fans: While it may have been a questionable call, you had several other chances to win that game. It was two years ago. Get over it. WIN

Raiders (-1.5) over Lions
The annual NFL Toilet Bowl takes place early this year. I don't what dirt that Matt Millen has on William Clay Ford that has enabled him to keep his job yet another year, but I'm sure it would make Tony Soprano jealous. LOSS

Chargers (-6) over Bears
Two things that San Diegans won't miss this season are the midnight blue helmets and Mart Schottenheimer's questionable play-calling. Come on, the helmets weren't that bad. WIN

Giants (+5.5) over Cowboys
Peyton might have won a Super Bowl but thank goodness there's still one Manning left that we can rag on. LOSS

Ravens (+2.5) over Bengals
Last year, Cinci had more players arrested than it had victories. Can they keep the streak alive? Chris Henry is on ice for the first half of the season, which means that he won't be able to help the Bungles' win total. but he'll have a ton of free time to get himself into trouble. Odds look good. LOSS

49ers (-3) over Cardinals
The second-half of Monday Night Football's opening doubleheader features these two perennial cellar-dwellers. The game starts after 10PM, which is just fine for the two-thirds of America in the Central and Eastern time zones who would have no interest in this game anyway. TIE

BEST BET: Broncos (-3) over Bills LOSS
ELIMINATOR: Seattle Seahawks WIN

THE MONKEY: Seahawks (-6) over Bucs WIN