American Idle

Tonight was the first part of the season finale of American Idol. Taylor Hicks and Katharine McPhee are competing to decide who gets to be the next Kelly Clarkson. Having watched all of about six episodes this season, I can't say I really care, and I definitely didn't vote. But I did notice a certain pattern that has taken place in all odd-numbered seasons of Idol. I doubt it amounts to much, but it is a curious coincidence.

Fourth-place: In seasons one, three, and five, the contestant kicked off in the final four was expected to go all the way to the final. Their premature departure was a shock. However, Tamyra Gray and LaToya London both went on to decent commercial success. Chris Daughtry appears to be heading down the same road, whether or not he ends up as the lead singer of Fuel.

Third-place: The contestant kicked off in the final three stuck around much longer than they should have, and even the contestants themselves likely realized it. Nobody has heard much from them since, save for appearances on "Reality Show B-List Celebrity Fear Factor." Nikki McKibbin was third on Idol's first season, and obviously we remember Elliot Yamin who got the boot last week, but I actually had to look up season three to remind myself that the penultimate elimination was Jasmine Trias.

Final: In seasons one and three, the final featured one contestant (Kelly Clarkson, Fantasia) who was clearly head and shoulders above the other (Justin Guarini, Diana DeGarmo), and that contestant went on to win. Here, Taylor Hicks appears to be the favorite, but things are much less clear-cut, especially if last week's razor-thin vote totals are any indication.

On seasons two and four, the consensus is that the final matchup got things right. The best two contestants made it to the end, and while Ruben Studdard and Carrie Underwood got the record deals, runners-up Clay Aiken and Bo Bice have arguably done just as well, if not better.