Thursday, October 25, 2007

Playing The Spread 2K7, Week 8

Ordinarily, I'm a huge fan of anything involving a foreign country. However, when it comes to the NFL's first regular season foray outside of North America, I have my reservations.

The concept -- take two teams and have them play a game or two in some foreign venue in order to market your league to a global audience -- has been employed in the past with great success by the MLB and NHL. The NFL has also hosted preseason American Bowls in foreign venues with large crowds attending those games.

When baseball or hockey games move overseas, teams lose one or two of their forty to eighty home games. When regular season football games move overseas, one team loses one of their precious few eight home games (12.5 percent of their home schedule). The league might compensate the team for the lost gate receipts, but still, nothing can replace the intangible benefits of playing in your home stadium.

The disruption factor also merits consideration. This time around, it's not a huge deal for two East Coast teams to travel to London, since the flight only takes marginally longer than a jaunt to California and the trip is short enough that the players need not bother adjusting to the time difference. If you start to involve a destination in Central Europe, or teams from the Midwest, you're adding another hour or two to the flight. Once you look at the Far East, it's difficult to pull off such a trip while maintaining the pace of the regular season.

If a team wants to move a home game to a foreign venue on its own volition (see Buffalo Bills), then the league should do what they can to facilitate the game. After all, there is precedent for such a move, since the Green Bay Packers used to play two games a year in Milwaukee. However, when league comes to a team and demands they give up one eighth of their home schedule for broader marketing purposes, it's a tall order. Only if the season expands to 17 games, with one game for each team being played in a neutral venue, can I justify the imposition of football games abroad.

The following picks are for entertainment purposes only and should not the basis for any actual cash wagers.

Last Week: 8-6
Season To Date: 48-47-8
Best Bets: 3-4
Eliminator: 6-1 (Streak: W 3)
The Monkey: 3-3-1

Giants (-9.5) over Dolphins

Different continent, same result for the hapless Dolphins, who will be turned into fish and chips by the time the Giants are done with them on Sunday. LOSS

Lions (+5) over Bears
If I had told you in August that the Lions would complete the season sweep of the Bears, you would have laughed in my face. WIN

Steelers (-3.5) over Bengals
Meaningless statistic of the week: Pittsburgh is 0-2 when playing in the Mountain Time Zone and 4-0 when playing anywhere else in the country. WIN

Colts (-6.5) over Panthers
VINNY TESTAVERDE IS IN JERRY'S BOX AND VINNY TESTAVERDE IS COMING BACK! OH MY GOODNESS GRACIOUS! OF ALL THE DRAMATIC THINGS I'VE EVER SEEN, VINNY TESTAVERDE STANDING RIGHT IN JERRY RICHARDSON'S BOX ANNOUNCING HE IS BACK! VINNY TESTAVERDE IS A CAROLINA PANTHER! WIN

Titans (-7.5) over Raiders
Looks like Vince Young managed to sidestep the Madden Curse this year, missing only one game. What's that you say? The season's only half over? LOSS

Browns (-3) over Rams
If the Browns pull off the victory this weekend, they will have won four out of seven games. The Indians might want to pay attention and see how that's done. WIN

Eagles (-1) over Vikings
In this season's Heimlich Bowl, the Eagles and Vikings will do battle to see who can choke up a big lead first. WIN

Bills (+3) over Jets
Despite his troubles, Eric Mangini is obstinately sticking with Chad Pennington as his QB. Hey, Chad has to win again at least sometime this season, right? WIN

Chargers (E) over Texans
Sage Rosenfels almost single-handedly brought the Texans back from a 25-point deficit last week. I hadn't seen a Jew throw rocks like that since the book of Deuteronomy. WIN

Bucs (-4) over Jaguars
If it's any consolation, the guy the Jaguars let go to make room for David Garrard is injured as well. LOSS

Saints (-3) over 49ers
Will it be Trent Dilfer or Alex Smith behind center for the Niners on Sunday? More importantly, will it really matter? WIN

Redskins (+16.5) over Patriots
Not that I think there's any chance the Patriots will lose, but against the Skins' secondary, Tom Brady might only just barely top 300 yards this week. LOSS

Broncos (-3) over Packers
Let's hope that Broncos-Packers will be the only game taking place in Denver on Monday night. LOSS

BEST BET: Steelers (-3.5) over Bengals WIN
ELIMINATOR: Tampa Bay Buccaneers LOSS

THE MONKEY: Dolphins (+9.5) over Giants WIN

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