Playing The Spread, Divisional Playoffs

Now that the dust has settled on Wild Card Weekend, we see that we might as well have skipped last week and just let the four division champions from each conference into the playoffs. If we did that, however, it would eliminate one of the greatest advantages in professional sports.

In baseball, football, and basketball, the higher-seeded team (or the winner of the All-Star Game) receives home field advantage. But that home field advantage means only that if the series lasts a full seven games, it is the decisive final game that is played in the home team's stadium. If the series doesn't last the full seven, then the homefield advantage is moot. In other competitions where one loss eliminates a team (i.e. March Madness, Frozen Four, games are generally played at a neutral site.

While home field for a one-and-done tournament is undoubtedly a huge advantage, an even bigger advantage is gained from the bye week a host team enjoys before the divisional round. After putting their bodies on the line for 16 of the previous 17 weeks, an extra seven days of rest is invaluable for these players. Some will claim that they want to have a game during Wild Card Weekend in order to preserve their momentum, but frankly, I don't believe that any pro football player would turn down a week off if it were offered to them.

With the homefield advantage and the bye week, along with the chance to play a lower-seeded team, it's no wonder that the home teams in the divisional round win something like 70-80% of the time. We'll soon see if that trend continues to hold true.

The following picks are for entertainment purposes only and should not be used as the basis for actual cash wagers.

Last week: 1-3
Season to date: 130-123-7
Best bets: 8-10

Patriots (+5) over Chargers
Come Sunday, you can add LaDanian Tomlinson to the long list of All-World running backs that Bill Belichick has managed to shut down. The Pats need to get the ball in Philip Rivers' hands as much as possible if they want to pull off the upset. WIN

Ravens (-3.5) over Colts
I don't know about you, but the two postseason events I'm looking forward to the most this year are Super Bowl XLI and Peyton Manning Choke VI. LOSS

Eagles (+5) over Saints
Congrats to the Saints for getting this far, but I don't think that a team with such minimal postseason experience can prevail this week. The only team in the NFC right now that is playing like they can make it to the Super Bowl is the Eagles. On a side note, I'd love to see Donovan McNabb's mother go mano-a-mano with Kurt Warner's mom. WIN

Bears (-8.5) over Seahawks
It took a gaffe of Bucknerian proportions for the Seahawks to get past the foundering Dallas Cowboys. Unless Rex Grossman lays another egg (which is not a stretch at all) the Seahawks and their makeshift secondary will be done for the year by Sunday evening. LOSS

BEST BET: Eagles (+5) over Saints WIN