Playing The Spread, Week 14

In most other countries, the idea of divisions or conferences, in the American sense, is completely foreign. European soccer leagues, for example, have divisions in the vertical sense, meaning that the top teams in each division at the end of each season get promoted to the higher division, while the worst teams are relegated to a lower division. But within each division, there are no further subdivisions. In the Premier League of English soccer, the 20 teams are ranked top-to-bottom in a general classification.

Contrast that setup with the NFL, where teams are broken up into eight divisions of four. At least one team from each division is guaranteed a playoff spot. But the divisional games are merely a piece of a team's overall schedule. As a result, there is a distinct possibility of the perverse outcome of a 7-9 team winning a weak division and hosting a playoff game against a 12-4 team from a strong division relgated to a wild card spot because a rival went 13-3. As a general rule, the smaller the subdivisions from which playoff teams are guaranteed, the more likely it is that a sub-.500 team will limp into the playoffs.

It appears unlikely right now that any of the eight divisions will end up crowning a champion without a winning record. However, the NFC is guaranteed six playoff teams, and as it stands currently, four teams with 6-6 records are fighting for the two wild card spots. Meanwhile, over in the AFC, it looks like 10-6 might not be good enough to guarantee a game in January. Is this inequity a problem? Perhaps it might be, since potential playoff outsiders like the Jaguars and the Broncos look likely to be punished just for playing in the stronger conference. But with a 16-game season, it's just not possible to play a full round-robin the way they do in the Premiership. It may be an unfair system at times, but it's the best we can do given the circumstances.

As usual, the following picks are for recreational purposes only and should not be the basis for any actual cash wagers.

Last week: 4-12 (ouch!)
Season to date: 94-91-7
Best bets: 5-8
Eliminator: 11-2 (Streak: W 3)

Browns (+7.5) over Steelers
The Cleveland Browns are like a bad case of herpes. Just when you think you've gotten rid of them for good, they spring up at the most inopportune time and derail your attempts to score. LOSS

Patriots (-3.5) over Dolphins
The good news is that the Pats are on a three-game win streak, despite playing like absolute crap in two of those last three contests. The bad news is that they don't have any more games against the NFC. LOSS

Falcons (-3) over Bucs
It's a good thing that Jim Mora Jr. doesn't coach the Ravens, because if he did, a comment by Papa Mora about Ray Lewis being a coach killer could be taken literally. WIN

Bengals (-11) over Raiders
Another week, another Bengal arrested. It's the least surprising news since "Britney shows complete lack of class" or "Kennedy relative arrested for suspected DUI." WIN

Eagles (-1.5) over Redskins
Maybe we shouldn't write off Jeff Garcia quite yet. Of course, a supporting cast consisting of Donte' Stallworth, Reggie Brown, Brian Dawkins, and Lito Sheppard -- four underrated guys who come up big when it counts -- doesn't hurt. WIN

Panthers (-3) over Giants
There are only two things better than watching a New York team collapse: reading the New York media's reaction to the teams collapse, and watching the Colts collapse. LOSS

Vikings (+2.5) over Lions
Christmas came early for the Lions last week, thanks to a gift-wrapped three turnovers and fumble in the end zone, covered for a touchdown, courtesy of the Patriots. But, selfless players that they are, the Lions felt it was better to give than to receive, and regifted the three turnovers back to the Pats, with two extras thrown in for good measure. WIN

Colts (-1.5) over Jaguars
After an absence lasting most of the season, we've been treated to two separate appearances of the Peyton Manning sulky face in the last three weeks. Here's hoping that Sunday makes three. LOSS

Chiefs (-3) over Ravens
If you blow a 14-point fourth quarter lead against the Browns, you do not deserve to make the playoffs. It doesn't even matter that your star running back has been energized by his new black head coach. LOSS

Titans (+1.5) over Texans
Two weeks ago, Vince Young's mind control techniques gave the Titans a thrilling come-from-behind win. Last week, kicker Rob Bironas used his powers of telekinesis to drive home a 60-yard field goal. I'm just waiting for Drew Bennett to levitate and grab a Hail Mary pass, or for Travis Henry to shape-shift his way through the D-line on a 4th and goal run. WIN

Seahawks (-3) over Cardinals
The masters of the game-winning kick look to ride Josh Brown's right foot to the NFC West title. LOSS

49ers (-4.5) over Packers
These two teams met in the playoffs five times between 1996 and 2002. Let's just say it won't be happening again this year. LOSS

Jets (-4) over Bills
All aboard the Eric Mangini bandwagon! If any AFC East team (besides the Pats, of course) is playing in January, the odds-on favorite is the Jets. Who would have thunk it even a month ago? LOSS

Broncos (+7.5) over Chargers
Before you go dumping on Jay Cutler, consider for a second whether Sunday night's game would have come out any differently with Jake Plummer under center. I don't think so either. LOSS

Cowboys (-7) over Saints
Hollis Thomas has been suspended four games for a positive steroid test and is blaming his asthma medication. That's the best excuse you have? No stillborn chimerical twin? No adverse effects from chugging Jack Daniels? What about a player from another team spiking your Gatorade? C'mon man, if you want to make it in the present-day world of pro sports, you need to think bigger than that. LOSS

Bears (-6.5) over Rams
It seems like the best game plan for the Bears may be to keep the ball out of Rex Grossman's hands entirely by punting on first down and entrusting the defense and special teams to score all the points. WIN

BEST BET: Seahawks (-3) over Cardinals LOSS
ELIMINATOR: Cincinnati Bengals WIN

Note: On account of my law school final exams, It's A Magical World will be publishing on a reduced schedule through December 20th.