Playing The Spread, Week 15

One of the most serious penalties in professional football is the 15-yard personal foul for roughing the quarterback. Such a penalty can singlehandedly keep a drive alive since a first down is awarded even if the 15 yards aren't necessarily sufficient to move the sticks on their own. While statistic do not bear out the assertion, there is nevertheless a perception that the penalty is being called more often this season than in years past.

As a result, defensive linemen have been adjusting their play accordingly. When Mathias Kiwanuka inexplicably released Vince Young from his grasp three weeks ago, he claimed that he saw Young throw the ball and he didn't want to get called for a roughing the passer penalty. You tell your players to go full steam until the whistle blows and not to let up until then, but such perseverance is difficult when you are constantly shadowed by the prospect of a drive-sustaining penalty.

On the flip side, however, the quarterback's safety is undoubtedly important. Offensive linemen and blocking backs take up stances that enable them to best absorb physical contact. A quarterback in full extension after throwing a pass has no such luxury. While he is otherwise a field player subject to being tackled, no quarterback could survive the season unless a penalty for late contact existed.

Therefore, I propose that the roughing the passer penalty be bifurcated in a manner similar to the face mask and running into the kicker penalties. For clear and egregious offenses, like unnecessary late hits and helmet-to-helmet contact, the 15-yard markoff with an automatic first down should be enforced. But for unavoidable contact on a follow-through or a hit that is mistimed by a matter of a split second, fairness dictates that only five yards should be penalized and no first down would be awarded unless earned by the markoff. It strikes a healthy medium between protecting the passer and allowing defensive linemen to do their job without constant fear of serious penalties.

As usual, the following picks are for entertainment purposes only and should not the basis for any actual cash wagers.

Last week: 6-10
Season to date: 100-101-7
Best bets: 5-9
Eliminator: 12-2 (Streak: W 4)

49ers (+9.5) over Seahawks
If the NFL Network wants to play hardball and force Cablevision to submit to popular demand by including it in the basic cable package, it needs better games that the ones they've had. WIN

Cowboys (-3) over Falcons
Dallas just released plans for its gargantuan new stadium. It seems like everything is bigger in Texas except for Terrell Owens' attention span. WIN

Patriots (-11.5) over Texans
Every time the Patriots play like crap I rest easy, knowing that they'll turn things around and come out strong for the next game. At least that's what I've been hoping happens for three weeks now. WIN

Bucs (+13.5) over Bears
Rex Grossman has Brian Griese staring over his shoulder in case he screws up, while Tim Rattay is waiting in the wings to take over for Bruce Gradkowski. Some incentive, huh? WIN

Panthers (-2.5) over Steelers
Think about it, Joey Porter. Was calling Kellen Winslow a faggot really worth ten grand of your hard-earned money? Now, if you want to insult Chris "Tinky" Weinke's sexuality, I give you that gem for free. LOSS

Packers (-5) over Lions
Brett Favre is like the guy from the opening scene of Monty Python and the Holy Grail: "I'm not dead yet!" WIN

Browns (+11.5) over Ravens
Secretly, I'd like to see Romeo Crennel fired after this season so that Bill Belichick can rehire him and install him in his old position as the Pats' defensive coordinator. We sure could use him. WIN

Jaguars (-3.5) over Titans
The Jaguars and Titans are my new second- and third-favorite teams. Why, you ask? Anybody that knocks off the Colts and humilates Peyton Manning in the process earns a special place in my heart. LOSS

Jets (+3) over Vikings
Vikings defensive backs coach Joe Woods was arrested for and charged with drunk driving. Hey, at least he was wearing clothes. (Alternate joke: The Bengals front office called and expressed interest in interviewing him for a coaching position once the season is over.) WIN

Saints (-9.5) over Redskins
We knew they were a pretty good team, but Sunday night's shellacking of the Cowboys in Texas Stadium proved that the Saints may in fact be the team to beat in the NFC. LOSS

Dolphins (+1) over Bills
After borrowing a page from the Homeland Security playbook last week by listening in Tom Brady's conversations, the Dolphins plan to follow up by apprehending J.P. Losman and holding him indefinitely in Little Havana as an "enemy combatant." LOSS

Broncos (-2.5) over Cardinals
Somehow the Denver Broncos still harbor aspirations of making the playoffs. A game against the pushover Cardinals will only serve to inflate those otherwise unreasonable expectations. WIN

Rams (+2.5) over Raiders
Two first-year head coaches whose teams are struggling to win a single game enter the Black Hole on Sunday afternoon. Only one of them will emerge with their job still intact. WIN

Eagles (+5.5) over Giants
Having been falsely accused of being homosexual himself, Jeff Garcia has invited Kellen Winslow to come his beachfront cottage on Key West and "talk things over" once the season is done. WIN

Chiefs (+8.5) over Chargers
Here's hoping that Kansas City pulls off the major upset in memory of their now-deceased owner Lamar Hunt, one of the pioneers of the Super Bowl era and a man who was always willing to put the interests of the league above those of himself and his own team. LOSS

Bengals (+3) over Colts
It looks like both Peyton Manning and the Bengals' legal defense team are in prime post-season form.

BEST BET: Broncos (-2.5) over Cardinals WIN
ELIMINATOR: Green Bay Packers WIN