Playing The Spread, Week 11

For all the money it involves, the NFL is understandably protective of its television rights and policies. However, in an effort to protect the franchise, some its TV policies are downright farcical.

Briefly, on Sunday afternoons, the two broadcasting networks (CBS and Fox) alternate in carrying doubleheaders, meaning that each weekend, both networks carry 1 p.m. games while one of the two gets a 4:15 p.m. game in addition. The 4:15 p.m. game is considered an exclusive telecast, meaning that unless the other network is still showing the conclusion of the primary game for a given market, any "bonus coverage" must immediately cease. So, you have a very fan-unfriendly policy of having to switch away from a live telecast of the final minutes of a competitive contest. But the network can show the studio show, and they can show footage of the game as long as it's not in real time, so you end up with James Brown and company sitting around a table, watching television, gesticulating at a screen you can't see, then describing the play that just occurred, then finally showing footage of the play.

Now, I understand that the NFL wants to protect its franchise, but I just don't quite see what the benefit is. Yeah, maybe Fox would lose out on some viewers for the first 15 minutes of its game if everyone is still watching CBS, but it's not like anyone would suddenly decide, "You know, I'm not going to watch the Fox game after all, since I'd rather just stick with CBS and watch reruns of NCIS." Also, anyone who wants to see the conclusion of the game would stick with CBS anyway, accepting a facsimile of the real thing rather than a completely different game altogether.

All I'm saying is that the NFL should just bite the bullet, accept that ratings for the first 15 minutes of a late afternoon broadcast will be a bit lower as people switch over from the prior game, and let the fine people of America see the exciting finish to an amazing product. Really, without the fans, there could be no NFL.

The following picks are for recreational purposes only and should not the basis of actual cash wagers. But if you're inclined to disobey my advice, I assure you that your profitability is about to turn around.

Last week: 6-10
Season to date: 70-68-6
Best bets: 3-7
Eliminator: 8-2 (Streak: L 1)

Patriots (-5.5) over Packers
The Pats, most uncharacteristically, laid eggs two weeks in a row. Here's betting that they won't make it three. WIN

Panthers (-7) over Rams
Carolina finally figured out how to close out a game. St. Louis seems to have forgotten. WIN

Falcons (+4) over Ravens
Atlanta is coming off losses to the pathetic Lions and the less pathetic but still not exactly great Cleveland Browns. By that logic, they should trounce a quality opponent. LOSS

Raiders (+9.5) over Chiefs
Trent Green is finally healthy and can reassume the starting position that Damon Huard has kept warm for him. But with a highly-competent backup waiting in the wings, don't think Green won't be on a very short leash. WIN

Bills (+2.5) over Texans
Former Bill O.J. Simpson has taken a break from his search for the real killer to write a book confessing, I mean, speculating on how he would have committed the murders of his ex-wife and her boyfriend, you know, had he actually done it (wink, wink). Hasn't that man caused those families enough grief? WIN

Dolphins (-3.5) over Vikings
When making this picks, I know I like to go with a hot team and go against a very cold team. Therefore, picking this game should be a cinch. And watch me be completely wrong. WIN

Saints (-3.5) over Bengals
Last week, Cinci had a 21-point lead at halftime, yet still managed to blow the game. It's good to have the old Bengals back. LOSS

Bears (-7) over Jets
Chicago is probably the most opportunistic team in the NFL right now, having feasted on a steady diet of defensive and special teams TD's en route to an 8-1 record. Last week's 108-yard field goal attempt return ranks right up there with, well, last year's 108-yard field goal attempt return. WIN

Titans (+13) over Eagles
Maybe I'm deluded, but all season I've tended to give Tennessee more credit than their record would indicate. Some weeks it's panned out, other weeks it hasn't, but I'm inclined to demonstrate strength and stay the course. WIN

Steelers (-3.5) over Browns
Yes, there is another football game taking place in Ohio this weekend. WIN

Redskins (+3) over Bucs
I hate to say this Joe Gibbs, but I think the NFL has indeed left you behind. TIE

Cardinals (-2) over Raiders
If they made a Jim Carrey movie about this game, it would be called Worse and Worserer. I pity the folks who get this game in their home territory with everything else blacked out. WIN

Seahawks (-4.5) over 49ers
Congrats Seattle, you managed to weather the storm caused by the absence of your two biggest offensive guns. Everything from here on out should be downhill. LOSS

Cowboys (+1) over Colts
I am predicting (more accurately, hoping and praying) that Sunday afternoon sees Peyton Manning suffer his first loss the season. Please, please, please, please, please let it happen. Hearing about him all the time makes me sick. WIN (thank goodness!)

Broncos (-2.5) over Chargers
Three words can explain why the Chargers will make the playoffs this year: La. Danian. Tomlinson. LOSE

Giants (+3.5) over Jaguars
I don't get how the Giants, the second best team in the NFC, can be a field goal underdog against a team that lost to Houston -- twice. Figuring that their nemesis, the Texans, must have been doing something right, the Jags arranged to have their players tasered during practice this week. LOSS

BEST BET: Dolphins (-3.5) over Vikings WIN
ELIMINATOR: Kansas City Chiefs WIN

Note: In order to accomodate the Thanksgiving Day slate of games, next week's edition of Playing The Spread will publish on Wednesday.