Playing The Spread, Week 9

As we arrive at the midpoint of the NFL regular season, I thought it would be fun to revisit my preseason playoff predictions and see, at least for the time being, how right or wrong I was.

American Football Conference
East: New England Patriots
Dead on correct. The only mistake was that I didn't think it would be nearly as easy as it's been.

North: Pittsburgh Steelers
Seems like nobody wants to win this division. Baltimore probably has the best shot.

South: Indianapolis Colts
Running away with it, as usual. Wake me up when they screw things up in the playoffs.

West: Denver Broncos
If it weren't for the Colts, the Broncos and their stingy D would be the team to beat.

Wild Cards: Miami Dolphins, San Diego Chargers
The Chargers are right in the thick of things. The Dolphins, however, tricked me and many experts into thinking at the beginning of the season that they were actually a contender. That smokescreen has since been clear. I think the last spot goes to the Jaguars, though the Chiefs might be able to put together a run.

National Football Conference
East: Dallas Cowboys
Nope. The NFC East belongs to the Giants. It's their playoff spot to lose.

North: Chicago Bears (by default)
Absolutely correct, but not by default. They've earned it.

South: Carolina Panthers
The NFC South has developed into a slugfest. Atlanta, Carolina, and New Orleans all have a good shot at the division, while the Bucs might even have an outside chance at mixing things up. Assuming Michael Vick stays healthy (major assumption), I'd give the division to the Falcons, though the Saints and Panthers both could nail down wild cards.

West: Seattle Seahawks
Let's see: Not San Fran and certainly not Arizona. That leaves St. Louis. While I think the Rams can stay competitive, I'd give the edge to Seattle on the basis of their head-to-head meeting.

Wild Cards: New York Giants, New Orleans Saints
Forced to choose, I'd say the Saints and the Rams, though I could see Carolina grabbing one of these slots. Dallas might also move in, assuming Tony Romo can serve as an effective replacement for Drew Bledsoe (the threshold is not very high).

As always, the following picks are for recreational purposes only and should not be the basis for any actual cash wagers.

Last week: 7-7
Season to date: 61-47-6
Worst bets: 2-6
Eliminator: 7-1 (Streak: W 1)

Giants (-13) over Texans
While I am disgusted by the neverending flow of national media ink wasted on extolling the Manning brothers, I must concede that they make great commercials. The latest ad, with Peyton and Eli tailing the tour group at the ESPN studios while trying to beat each other up -- hilarious! LOSS

Saints (-1) over Bucs
Reggie Bush shouldn't be frustrated by a bad game last Sunday at Baltimore. All the best players lay an egg from time to time, even Peyton Manning, though he prefers to wait until the playoffs to do it. You might want to leave the quarterbacking to the actual quarterbacks, though. WIN

Packers (+3) over Bills
A team that loses to the Detroit Lions must wait a minimum of five weeks before I even consider picking them to win another game. LOSS

Cowboys (-3) over Redskins
The way Bill Parcells ran around kissing all his players on Sunday night, one wonders whether he coaches the Dallas Cowboys or the Brokeback Mountain Cowboys. LOSS

Bears (-13.5) over Dolphins
The good old boys who played for the 1972 Dolphins always take particular delight in seeing their successors in Miami knock off another team's hopes of an undefeated season. It won't happen this year. LOSS

Titans (+9.5) over Jaguars
While one might dismiss Jacksonville's hiccup against Houston as an aberration, I believe it proves they are always vulnerable against a pesky divisional foe. LOSS

Falcons (-5.5) over Lions
Seeing as how he has further need for it, Kenny Rogers has donated his remaining supply of pine tar to the Lions' wide receiving corps, since they need any help they can get at this point, legal or otherwise. LOSS

Ravens (-3) over Bengals
Numero Ocho Cinco would be better known as Numero Cuatro, since that's how many touchdowns he's on pace to catch this year. WIN

Rams (-2.5) over Chiefs
Last thing you want to hear over the PA if your team is in the thick of a battle for a wild card spot: "Now playing quarterback, number twelve, Brodie Coyle." The Chiefs are one minor Damon Huard injury away. LOSS

Vikings (-5) over 49ers
While the Vikings may nevertheless ride a weak schedule into the postseason, Monday night's game exposed them as the second-tier team they truly are. Didn't you love the part where the Pats sacked the backup QB on each of his first three snaps? LOSS

Broncos (+3) over Steelers
After a motorcycle accident, an emergency appendectomy, and two concussions, Ben Roethlisberger is the NFL equivalent of Mick Foley. He's still a young kid, so Pittsburgh would be well-served to give him some time off now for the sake of prolonging his career. WIN

Chargers (-12.5) over Browns
A well-timed drop of a tactical appeal leaves the Chargers without Shawne Merriman for the murderer's row of Cleveland, Cincinnati, Denver, and Oakland. Something tells me they won't miss him too much in that span. LOSS

Patriots (-3) over Colts
And here we have the most anticipated game of the year thusfar. Realize that when Tom Brady has any semblance of a healthy supporting cast, he's 6-0 in games against Peyton Manning. Mark my words, the Colts' hopes of an undefeated season, while fanciful to begin with (given their run defense) end on Sunday night. LOSS

Raiders (+7.5) over Seattle
It's my sleeper pick of the week: The Raiders have finally started to jell while the Seahawks are still missing their two biggest offensive weapons. Circumstances are ripe for an upset, if you ask me. LOSS

BEST BET: Falcons (-5.5) over Lions LOSS
ELIMINATOR: San Diego Chargers WIN