Playing The Spread 2K7, Week 15

Anyone who regularly watches football games has seen this scenario: offensive team stands milling around, waiting for a play call to come in from the sidelines. Eventually, with about fifteen seconds left on the play clock, the team huddles up hurriedly. Then, with five second left, the players themselves at the line of scrimmage. The quarterback sees something he doesn't like in the defensive formation and calls up and down the line, checking off the planned play for an audible. But, he doesn't have enough time to make sure everyone gets the message, and with the play clock about to hit zero, he pulls out from under center and calls a time out.

Popular wisdom seems to dictate that the quarterback call a timeout in this situation, but I want to challenge this convention. Teams only receive three timeouts per half, so naturally, they should use them only when necessary, such as to stop the clock in the final two minutes or to reset their defense if they're not ready for a play or to challenge a call.

Saving yourself a five-yard penalty near midfield early in a game doesn't seem to carry the same import. Teams regularly absorb ten-yard holding penalties or sacks of eight to twelve yards yet still manage to convert for the first down. Sure, a five-yard setback never helps your cause (unless you're Russ Hochstein and the Patriots), but as far as penalties go, it's pretty minimal.

Next time a quarterback realizes he won't be able to get a play off on time, I'd love to see him just step back, leave his arms at his side, and let the officials throw a flag. Five yards isn't worth a timeout. Consider the five yards to be the cost of being able to stop the clock at will down the stretch.

The following picks are for entertainment purposes only and should not be the basis of any actual cash wagers.

Last week: 10-6
Season To Date: 98-99-11
Best Bets: 9-5
Eliminator: 11-3 (Streak: W 2)
The Monkey: 7-5-2

Texans (-1) over Broncos
Somehow, I doubt that Comcast will be besieged by phone calls from people complaining about being unable to watch games on the NFL Network this week. WIN

Bengals (-8) over 69ers
I'm going to start referring to San Francisco as the 69ers -- because they suck. LOSS

Jets (+23.5) over Patriots
I can't remember the last time that the spread and the over/under were basically the same number. The only thing that might keep this game respectable is the nor'easter that's scheduled to arrive in town Sunday afternoon. WIN

Falcons (+13.5) over Bucs
Between Michael Vick and Bobby Petrino, the Falcons lost two major fixtures in less than 48 hours. At least players can go visit Bobby Petrino without submitting to a strip search and body cavity check. LOSS

Titans (-4) over Chiefs
You're not going to get far in this league if you led a team that's been dead to rights for the first 52 minutes of a game rally for 20 straight points and an overtime victory. WIN

Seahawks (-7.5) over Panthers
Carolina asked the NFL for permission to use its 2008 first round pick early, just to get a semi-competent live body behind center. LOSS

Packers (-10) over Rams
Brett Favre's injury ended up lasting about as long as his last three retirements. The streak is alive! WIN

Dolphins (+3.5) over Ravens
When you look back and realize what Nick Saban was running away from, he doesn't seem like quite the weasel. Most people would have done the same thing. WIN

Saints (-3.5) over Cardinals
With a chance to make the playoffs if they could pull off a late-season run, the Cards predictably wilted under the pressure. WIN

Jaguars (+3.5) over Steelers
Something tells me that the Steelers won't be letting Anthony Smith make any more motivational speeches this year. WIN

Bills (+5.5) over Browns
Of the thirteen games the Browns have played this year, ten have been decided by ten points or less, four have come down to a field goal, and two have gone to overtime. In a related story, pacemaker retailers in the Cleveland metropolitan area are reporting record sales. LOSS

Colts (-10.5) over Raiders
Indy has second place in the AFC all locked up, so they might as well give their starters a rest so that they're nice and rusty by the time they meet the Pats in the playoffs. LOSS

Lions (+10) over Chargers
Jon Kitna's early-season guarantee that his team would win ten games now looks about as accurate as, well, Anthony Smith's promise last week. LOSS

Cowboys (-10.5) over Eagles
Good teams win blowouts. Great teams manage to dig themselves out of holes when it looks like all hope is lost. (Of course, inept play-calling by the opponent never hurts.) LOSS

Giants (-4.5) over Redskins
Eli Manning is unstoppable... unless, of course, it's the first, second, or third quarter of a professional football game. LOSS

Vikings (-10) over Bears
Rex Grossman says he'd love to come back to the Bears if they want him. Of course, that's the same thing Brian Dunkleman said after the first season of American Idol. LOSS

BEST BET: Saints (-3.5) over Cardinals WIN
ELIMINATOR: Indianapolis Colts WIN

THE MONKEY: Dolphins (+3.5) over Ravens WIN