Thursday, October 05, 2006

Playing The Spread, Week 5

The exciting conclusion to last Sunday's Colts-Jets game, in which the Jets lateralled the ball eight times in a last-second bid for a game-winning touchdown, brought back memories of the 1983 Stanford-Cal game. However, it also provided intriguing insight into the genesis of the sport.

Football (the American version, that is) derived from rugby, a sport which, itself, has undergone drastically few changes over the past century. Watching a rugby match, you notice that the object is the same as in football -- drive the ball across the field and into your opponent's end zone. But unlike football, rugby prohibits the forward pass. The result is that ruggers try to run the ball upfield, and when they reach an impasse or are in the grasp of defenders trying to tackle them, they lateral the ball back to one of their teammates who hopefully has a different running lane, or, if necessary, just lay it on the ground, hoping that a teammate will pick it up before someone from the other team does. There are no downs -- play continues until the ball goes out of bounds, points are scored, or a foul is called.


The lateral rule is a relic of rugby that still exists in football. In 99% of the occasions where it's used, it's a simple means to effectuate a halfback toss sweep or a flea flicker. Rare is it that more than one lateral is made on a single play. But occasionally, we are treated to a series of laterals that, even if ultimately unsuccessful, catches the other team off-guard. We saw it in the Music City Miracle, we saw it in a Jaguars-Saints game a few years back, we saw in this past year's Alamo Bowl, we saw a horrible attempt at by the Panthers against the Vikings in Week 2, and we saw it with the Colts and Jets last week. It's a novelty, but like a Doug Flutie drop-kick PAT, it sometimes actually works.

The following picks are for entertainment purposes only and should not be used as the basis for any actual cash wagers -- especially my best bets.

Last week: 8-5-1
Season to date: 33-24-3
Best bets: An atrocious 1-3
Eliminator: 4-0

Patriots (-9.5) over Dolphins
Some so-called experts picked the Dolphins to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Well, guess what? They're 1-3, they're averaging 12.8 points per game, and they lost to the Houston Texans. WIN

Saints (-6.5) over Bucs
While they lost last week for the first time, the Saints showed that they're right in the thick of the NFC playoff hunt. Chris Simms didn't exactly strike fear into my heart (or spleen), so let's just say I wouldn't be particularly afraid of Brad Gradkowski if I were New Orleans. LOSS

Giants (-4.5) over Redskins
Washington is certainly a different team with Clinton Portis, but as much as I hate Eli Manning, I think the kid will hold off the Skins at home on Sunday. WIN

Bears (-10) over Bills
After crushing offensive powerhouse Seattle, the only other undefeated NFC team, a trip to Miami in early February is the Bears' to lose. WIN

Packers (+3) over Rams
Brett Favre left the game last week with a splitting headache. Sources tell me it was caused by the legions of Green Bay fans screaming for him to retire already. TIE

Browns (+8) over Panthers
The Browns have looked feisty as of late, even winning a game last week. I'm not saying they'll knock off Carolina, but they managed to keep pace with Baltimore, so I expect this game to be within a touchdown. TIE

Titans (+18) over Colts
About the only Tennessee could beat Indy this week is if a supposedly-suspended Albert Haynesworth runs onto the field and stomps on Peyton Manning's face. Actually, that's not a bad idea. I just can't bring myself to give up 18 points in today's NFL. WIN

Vikings (-6.5) over Lions
Back in the comfy surroundings of the Metrodome, Minnesota will quickly forget about last week's debacle in Buffalo. What's the best cure for a bad loss? Playing the Lions. WIN

Chiefs (-3.5) over Cardinals
All the folks in KC are no longer in any rush to have Trent Green become healthy again. Damon Huard is doing just fine, thank you very much. LOSS

49ers (-3.5) over Raiders
The 2006 edition of the Battle of the Bay isn't quite what it was back in 1983. I don't care about this game, and according to Randy Moss, neither do the rest of the Raiders. WIN

Jets (+7) over Jaguars
They might be only 2-2, but every game the Jets have made every game they've played this year interesting. LOSS

Eagles (-2) over Cowboys
Last week, it was all-T.O.-all-the-time with his did-he-or-didn't-he suicide attempt. This week, The T.O. Channel (what used to be called ESPN) will present wire-to-wire coverage of T.O.'s return to Philly. Next week, watch live coverage of T.O. going grocery shopping and taking his dog to the vet. WIN

Chargers (-3.5) over Steelers
We'll see if Ben Roesthlisberger is finally completely healthy and back to 2005 form after the Steelers' bye week. I say that Marty Schottenheimer has more of a point to prove. WIN

Broncos (-4) over Ravens
After being thanked for years of service with the Titans by being locked out of the team's workout facilities, it looks like Steve McNair is having the last laugh. WIN

BEST BET: Jets (+7) over Jaguars NOT EVEN CLOSE
ELIMINATOR: New Orleans Saints WIN

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