Playing The Spread, Week 1

Welcome to another fabulous NFL season. If it's the NFL, you know it's going to be good.

And if you're a Patriots fan, you know that the likes of Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli are going to make good personnel decisions. That is why I trust in them to appropriately handle the Deion Branch holdout in the best manner for the team.

However, I support Branch and his agent in their attempt to get his grievance heard not by one of the regular arbitrators that works with the NFL and the NFLPA but by the NFL's special master. See, the special master is a gentleman by the name of Stephen Burbank, who just happened to be my professor for Civil Procedure here at Harvard Law School last fall. As Burbank himself would gladly tell you, he's the right man for the job. After all, his law review articles have been utilized by Justice Scalia in official Supreme Court opinions, though they might not have been cited properly, and he got the highest grade in the class on his Secured Transactions exam while a law student, despite the fact that he only filled up one side of a bluebook page and thought he had failed. With a man like Burbank on the case, I can rest easier at night knowing that adjudication of NFL labor disputes are in the right hands.

In this space, I'll be making weekly NFL predictions against the MGM/Mirage point spread at the time of writing. I will pick one game each week as my "Best Bet," which means I am most confident about my selection for that game. A new feature this year is the "Eliminator," in which I will pick one team each week to win straight up, with the catch being that I can pick each team no more than once during the season. Keep in mind that these picks are for recreational purposes only and should not be the basis of any actual cash wagers.

Dolphins (E) over Steelers
Pittsburgh may be kicking off the season tonight by raising the Super Bowl banner, but keep in mind that they were a #6 seed last year and their quarterback is out after an emergency appendectomy. Miami should be a much-improved squad this year. LOSS

Patriots (-9) over Bills
Buffalo put their franchise in the hands of Rob Johnson, then Drew Bledsoe, and now J.P. Losman. I'm not exactly quaking in my boots. Even without Deion Branch, New England's starting offense is potent. LOSS

Broncos (-3.5) over Rams
With Mike Martz gone, St. Louis' game planning might now have a modicum of intelligence. LOSS

Jets (+3) over Titans
Like the rest of his team, Eric Mangini needs another two or three years before he's ready for prime time. I doubt Chad Pennington will ever be fully healthy. WIN

Ravens (+3) over Bucs
Chris Sims looks like a 12-year-old and Steve McNair walks like he's sixty. I'll take experience over youth for this game. WIN

Bengals (+2.5) over Chiefs
They may be the Bungles no more, but if Cinci's players keep having run-ins with the law at their current rate, they might not even be able to field a full roster by the end of the year. WIN

Seahawks (-6) over Lions
And speaking of legal trouble, Detroit's defensive line coach was arrested twice in the past two weeks, once for driving naked. I thought it was only the rookie players who were hazed, not the rookie coaches. LOSS

Panthers (-5) over Falcons
As a Playing the Spread bonus, I will make the official prediction that oft-injured Michael Vick, the most overrated quarterback this side of Rob Johnson, will play no more than nine weeks this season. Get well acquainted with Matt Schaub, Falcons fans. LOSS

Eagles (-4.5) over Texans
The wonderful thing about NFL parity is that three of the last four new expansion teams reached the playoffs within four years of team inception. The Texans evidently didn't get that memo. WIN

Saints (+3) over Browns
As much as I want to see former Patriots defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel turn the Browns' franchise around, I can't see it happening with Charlie Frye under center. Or Ken Dorsey coming off the bench to replace him by Week 6. WIN

Cowboys (+2.5) over Jaguars
I would love nothing more than to see Bill Parcells win one more Super Bowl. I would hate little more than to see Terrell Owens win one Super Bowl and to hear him yapping about it incessantly. LOSS

Bears (-3.5) over Packers
With an unimpressive supporting cast, Brett Favre may regret his incredibly drawn-out decision to come back to Green Bay for one more season. It will be a long one. WIN

Cardinals (-7.5) over 49ers
They had to play this game in Mexico City last year to get anybody to pay attention. The only thing worth watching this game for is a chance to see Arizona's state-of-the-art new stadium. LOSS (By a friggin' half-point)

Colts (-3.5) over Giants
Can't both Manning brothers lose?! Get ready for the droolfest by the national media. Sunday's game is Step One for the Colts en route to their annual 13-3 record and early exit from the playoffs. WIN

Vikings (+4.5) over Redskins
The "experts" seem to like the Redskins this year, but, while I know it was the preseason, I watched them get pasted 41-0 by the Pats three weeks ago. Very little looked good about that team. WIN

Chargers (-3) over Raiders
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Al Davis, having chewed up and spit out (or just plain scared away) every other coach in the league, had to go back to the well and hire Art Shell for a second tour of duty. He may be a glutton for punishment or he may just be desperate for work. WIN

BEST BET: Seahawks (-6) over Lions LOSS
ELIMINATOR: Arizona Cardinals WIN